Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Hilly Region of Assam: A Panel Data Analysis

This paper examines the in fluence of both climatic and non-climatic factors on the yield of major crops in hilly regions of Assam during 1981-2022. Cobb Douglas’s production function approach has been utilized with panel data of hill districts for the purpose. This is because this method is more appropriate in comparison to other methods due to its flexibility and ease of handling different econometric techniques. Empirical results reveal the negative effect of changing rainfall on the yield of autumn and winter rice, mustard and sugarcane. However, minimum and maximum temperature have significant positive effects on winter rice; minimum temperature has a positive effect on the yield of summer rice and wheat but a negative influence on the yield of sugarcane. Humidity positively influences autumn and winter rice. Maximum wind speed positively influences the sugarcane yield, while minimum wind speed has a negative effect on wheat, rape and mustard, sugarcane. The cropping area has a favourable impact on several crops and chemical fertilizer is necessary to enhance the productivity of major crops. Overall, a mixed influence of changing climatic conditions and technological factors is observed in this hill agriculture that varies across crops,with varying altitudes, agro-climatic conditions and adaptation patterns of farmers.