Forecasting Of Consumption Of Fertilizers In India: An Alarming Condition

IJEP 41(12): 1428-1438 : Vol. 41 Issue. 12 (December 2021)

Shiv Kumar Singh Pundhir1*, Sandeep Kumar2 and Anand Kumar Gupta1

1. GLA University, Mathura – 281 406, U.P., India
2. IILM CET AHL, Greater Noida – 201 306, U.P., India


From ancient times, human’s basic needs were food and shelter. The development of various civilizations shows that humans were developing for food from hunting animals to farming crops. So many wars were fought to get food security. Even in developed civilizations, humans started to work hard to get sufficient food. Worldwide different types of crops were produced to feed humans. In India, the majority of the population is dependent on farming. Initially, Indian farmers produced crops with the help of natural fertilizers, which were homemade and eco-friendly. These fertilizers did not have any side effects on soil and human health. When the population started increasing rapidly and agricultural land was decreasing due to industrialization, farmers started to use industry-manufactured fertilizers. With the help of these fertilizers, farmers can increase crop yield. But we cannot neglect the side effects of these fertilizers on the environment and human health. These fertilizers damage soil quality and cause water and air pollution. In-country, like India, where a mass population is dependent on agriculture, the long-term use of these fertilizers will damage environmental balance and will be harmful to human health. In this work in place of biological analysis of fertilizers, a mathematical model is developed to forecast the use of fertilizers so that we can be aware of how fertilizer consumption is increasing in India.


Fertilizers, Forecasting, Least square method, Trend equation


  1. Stamati, P.N., et al. 2016. Chemical pesticides and human health: The urgent need for a new concept in agriculture. Front. Public Health. 4:148.
  2. Kulkarni, S. and A. Goswami. 2019. Effect of excess fertilizers and nutrients: A review on impact on plants and human population. Proceedings of International Conference on Sustainable computing in science, technology and management (SUSCOM), Amity University Rajasthan, Jaipur, India.
  3. Patra, S., et al. 2016. Modeling impacts of chemical fertilizer on agricultural production: A case study on Hooghly district, West Bengal, India. Modeling Earth Systems Env., 2:1-11.
  4. Kumari, K.A., N. Kumar and N. Rao. 2014. Adverse effects of chemical fertilizers and pesticides on human health and environment. National Seminar on Impact of toxic metals, minerals and solvents leading to environmental pollution. J. Chem. Pharma. Sci., 3: 150-153.
  5. Righi, S., Lucialli, P. and L. Bruzzi. 2005. Health and environmental impacts of a fertilizer plant- Part I: Assessment of radioactive pollution. J. Env. Radioactivity.82(2):167-182.
  6. Abdel-Gadir, A.H., et al. 2003. The effect of different levels of additional potassium on yield and industrial qualities of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in an irrigated arid region. American J. Potato Res., 80:219-222.
  7. Lenka, S., et al. 2016. Impact of fertilizers use on environmental quality. Souvenir of National Seminar on Environmental concern for fertilizer use in future at Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Kalyani.
  8. Ward, M. H. 2009. Too much of a good thing? Nitrate from nitrogen fertilizers and cancer. Rev. Env. Health. 24(4):357-363.
  9. Zandjani, F., et al. 1994. Incidence of cancer among nitrate fertilizer workers. Int. Arch. Occupational Env. Health.66:189-193.
  10. Agarwal, G.D., S.K. Lunkad and T. Malkhed. 1999. Diffuse agricultural nitrate pollution of groundwater in India. Water Sci. Tech., 39(3):67-75.
  11. Bumb, B.L. and C.A. Baanante. 1996. Policies to promote environmentally sustainable fertilizer to use and supply to 2020. Int. Food Policy Res. Inst., 1-6.
  12. Chien, S.H., L.I. Prochnow and H. Cantarella. 2009. Recent developments of fertilizer production and use to improve nutrient efficiency and minimize environmental impacts. Adv. Agronomy. 102:268-306.
  13. Sanborn, M., et al. 2007. Non-cancer health effects of pesticides. Systematic review and implications for family doctors. Canadian Fam. Physician. 53:1712-1720.
  14. Wesseling, C., et al. 1997. Agricultural pesticide use in developing countries: Health effect and
    research needs. Int. J. Health Serv., 27:273-308.
  15. Bassil, K.L., et al. 2007. Cancer health effects of pesticides systematic review. Canadian Fam. Physician. 53:1704-1711.
  16. Hoppin, J.A., et al. 2008. Pesticides and atopic and non-atopic asthma among farm women in the agricultural health study. American J. Respir. Crit. care Med., 177:11-8.10.
  17. Roeleveld, N. and R. Bretveld. 2008. The impact of pesticides on male fertility. Curr. Opin. Obstet. Gynecol., 20:229-233.
  18. Osman, K.A. 2011. Pesticides and human health. In Pesticides in the modern world- Effects of pesticides exposure. Ed M. Stoytcheva. In Tech. pp 206-230.
  19. Gunnell, D., et al. 2007. The global distribution of fatal pesticide self-poisoning: Systematic review. BMC Public Health. 7:357.
  20. Witczak, A. and H.A. Gawad. 2014. Assessment of health risk from organochlorine pesticide residues in high-fat spreadable foods produced in Poland. J. Env. Sci. Health B. 49(12):917-928.